Orioles Think Tank

With only a short time until pitchers and catchers report, I thought I'd address the Richard Hidalgo rumor going around. Now- I have no idea as to it's validity, but that will not be the focus here. I'm going to take a look at the player- where he's been and where he might be headed.

Most of you know the name- Richard Hidalgo- as a function of his 2000 and 2003 seasons with the Houston Astros. In those years he hit .314/.391/.636 and .309/.385/.572 respectively. Before those seasons, he posted a season and change that looked pretty good and a horrible one. In between those years, he posted a solid season and a horrible one. Since those seasons, he's posted two horrible seasons. Last year, he basically hit like Sammy Sosa v.2K5 - even in the Arlington bandbox. You see what I'm getting at-- Hidalgo is one of the most remarkably inconsistent players in baseball.

A telling indicator of his inconsistency is his isolated discpline (OBP-BA). Have a look.

1997- 0.52
1998- 0.52
1999- 1.01
2000- 0.77
2001- 0.81
2002- 0.84
2003- 0.76
2004- 0.64
2005- 0.69

There are a few trends worth noting here. First, like many eventual all-stars, Hidalgo gradually improved his plate discipline before it declined and settled into the realm of decidedly average. Second, Hidalgo's best seasons do not correlate at all with his most disciplined seasons. For instance, his 1999 and 2002 seasons were nothing short of terrible. Yet, those are the seasons he posted his highest iso. discipline. I don't need to reiterate the high correlation between getting on base in any form and scoring runs, but there are exceptions out there that are more valuable offensively when they are more aggressive at the plate.

If I am venturing a hypothesis here, it is that Hidalgo is the type of hitter that thrives on being aggressive at the plate. Without having anything in front of me to quantitatively support this claim, that style of hitting lends itself to athletic (or toolsy) types- which scouts will confirm that Hidalgo is amongst. Of course, the downfall of this style of hitting is that it isn't often sustainable beyond a player's physical peak. In this example, you'll notice that Hidalgo will turn 31 in July. Moreover, his stolen base totals (another indicator of athleticism) have declined to a career-low of 1 in 2005 after a peak of 13 in 2000. All this leads me to the conclusion that Hidalgo spent his formative years altering his batting style, trying to figure out what worked for him. In the years he was able to most effectively determine his optimal plate aggressiveness, he was an all-star caliber player. But, since the approach he settled on is more reliant than others on sheer athleticism, he has had trouble maintaining success as he's aged. Accordingly, I find him to be an unlikely candidate for a rebound season.

Defensively, Hidalgo has played all three spots in the outfield adequately. He's even had a few outstanding seasons in right field where his arm strength is most valuable.

And just so I mention it, Hidalgo has no particular platoon advantages. He bats right-handed but has posted similar .276/.357/.480 and .266/.341/.493 lines vs. lefties and righties, respectively, over his career. In 2005, he even showed a reverse platoon advantage.

Disclaimer: For this particular example, I've only loosely relied on scouting reports. Most of my conclusions are based on analyzing his career major league statistics.

• In other news, The New York Post has named Javy Lopez one of the 5 most likely players to be traded, either in Spring Training or during the season. I'm constantly surprised by the lack of respect Javy gets. His career places him squarely in the Hall of Very Good. Of course, I'd still like to see him moved for whatever young talent the O's can get.

• If you're a premium member at Baseball Prospectus (and you should be), I urge you to check out their Team Health Report on the Orioles. Pretty much the usual suspects, but my earlier pessimism about the Ramon Hernandez signing has not been alleviated.